Last-minute Copenhagen update

The Copenhagen summit is almost over. President Obama stated just what we’ve all known for years, that talking does not solve our problems and that concessions are needed to get things going.

Too bad talking is all we’ve seen thus far. At first the major obstacle seemed to have been who will cover costs for the damage of history. Some letters and proposals have leaked one way or another, resulting in well feigned outrage of developing nations (figures talk about 10 billion dollars that will be made available for developing nations as a subsidy for green technology and past-damage). This no longer seems the case, however. Latest figures that were registered by my ears spoke of 10 billion Euros of short term investment, as the first share of a total investment of 100 billion Euros. I cannot tell how much of this will end up in poorer countries, but I’ll put that matter to rest until we hear more, since it seems unlikely that any big, developing country will settle for a deal that goes against the currents of their principles.

At this moment there remain two problems that have proved hard to take. How much will global CO2 emissions have to be reduced in order to achieve the goal that the earth’s temperature will not rise by more than two degrees Celsius? China is the other problem: They have so far refused bipartisan check-ups. They will definitely come up with data, figures and conclusions of their own, but when we think of Yuan-value, human-rights and many other issues, it becomes doubtful to which extent we can trust these outcomes.

China’s refusal is unsurprising. They have since long been reluctant to allow any country to meddle in their businesses, or indeed to let anyone publicize material that has not been state-approved (or state-made). It is essential, if anything positive will have to come out of the Copenhagen summit, that this attitude is dropped: America will not accept any deal that is ambitious enough to be able to work, that does not include the option to check amounts of CO2 emissions in all participating countries.

The U.S.A. didn’t leave us in doubt when it comes to that. Obama also reminded us that ‘our ability to take collective action is in doubt right now´. After switching on my television, I was again confronted with this, though the major emphasis was laid on something else, namely that ‘there are so many participants, hence so many interests’. What this fails to grasp is that we have only one interest. Nationalities might differ, climate change as a process does not. This has been underlined by the rapidity of global recognition: Climate change is not an issue that has presented itself decades after decades, rather, after many denials and sceptics, politicians have almost universally accepted that it occurs and needs solving.

In the coming hours they will probably be working on a deal along the following lines. By 2050, global CO2 emissions will have to be reduced by 50%. Rich countries will have to put even more effort into the project, with targets as high as 80%.  In a combination with extra flows of money to developing nations this seems a pretty fair way to spread this threat and burden. Lately, thanks to the heat that radiates from this topic,  many sceptics have again cried out loud that this is ´blind science´, and a waste of money. But if we do it right, this whole threat will not need to cost more than one, or a less positive two, percent of global economic output. That is a whole lot less than what we invested to avert the crisis.

Economies relations and political power seem to go hand in hand. Behind the scenes America and China are trying to reach common grounds. Without either of these I can’t see anything good coming out of Copenhagen at all.  They need each other, and neither wants to lose face, which is somewhat positive as both countries seem to realize they will be blamed if no treaty is drawn and accepted.

Political minds will need to be cunning and decisive in the ‘next five minutes to midnight’. China will need to make concessions by stop being over-suspicious and allowing foreign officials into their borders to register emission trends. My hopes are still high, my expectations are still low.